New Delhi think-tank The Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) has warned that India must prepare for 2000 coordinated drone attacks per day.
In a new CLAWS paper, Lt Gen (Dr.) VK Saxena, PVSM, AVSM, VSM, PhD (Retd) assesses the drone threat from adversaries and considers India’s counter-uncrewed aerial systems (C-UAS) requirements.
Based on open-source assessments, the paper estimates that India could face coordinated drone attacks from 1500–2000 or more platforms per day during a high-intensity conflict. The study argues for an integrated C-UAS framework comprising advanced detection systems, kinetic and non-kinetic kill mechanisms, and dedicated Battle Management Command and Control (BMC2) architecture.
Saxena says India faces a comprehensive drone threat from potential adversaries and lists some UAS platforms of concern. “This may be standalone or collusive among the potential adversaries or may draw from external powers that choose to support them in a war with India.”
The report notes China’s “substantial stealth muscle” in UAS operations and says its swarm drones have the capability to conduct multiple operations in India, which would “saturate, overwhelm and exhaust the air defences before executing the mainframe air threat, conduct threshold surveillance, conduct dedicated electronic warfare missions or mass kamikaze strikes”. The report references an India Today news article that says China is aiming to deploy more than one million AI enabled drones along the Indian border by 2026.
China, along with Türkiye, supplies drones to Pakistan, Saxena notes. “There are reports of collaborative efforts by Pakistan and China to commence the war with an AI-enabled, high altitude drone swarm,” the paper states. “China is helping Pakistan in the area of UAVs in general and high-altitude swarm drones in particular. There have been technology transfers enabling co-development and co-production between China and Pakistan.”
The report lists a number of drone detection measures that would be required to mitigate the threats including electro-optical (EO) surveillance devices, radio frequency (RF) based surveillance devices and acoustic sensors.
Saxena says multiple C-UAS measures are required, such as jamming, directed energy, electronic warfare, small arms, net capture systems, kamikaze drones and an electronic fence that would subject intruding drones to widespread jamming attacks and force them to initiate a default ‘return to base’ command. In addition, the report states that a dedicated Battle Management Command and Control or BMC2 architecture is required to handle a substantial volume of drones.
On current C-UAS capabilities, Saxena says there is a need to diversify the base. “Private players must pitch in to provide more variants and more quantum of drone detection radars.”
“A dedicated effort will be required to build the capabilities in building counters to swarm drone
threats,” the CLAWS paper states. “Some systems are already under development and a few are completed. Some of these include the Air Launched Flexible Asset—Swarm (ALFA-S) or the CATS swarm drone capability programme of HAL and NewSpace Research and Technologies, the Autonomous Surveillance and Armed Drone Swarm (A –SADS) or the Bhargavastra Micro Missile System by Solar Defence and Aerospace Limited.”
Saxena warns that India faces “a very live and comprehensive drone threat” from potential adversaries and that this threat “becomes more pronounced and more lethal when executed in a collusive manner and with the help of external players”.
For more information
Drone threat and C-UAS assessment – CLAWS
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