By Philip Butterworth-Hayes
In the drone/counter drone warfare arena something has shifted.
The past few days have seen a growing number of major tie-ups between US and Ukrainian industries focused on bringing AI-enabled targeting systems to the C-UAS intercept drone capabilities of both sides.
On July 24, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced he had reached an agreement with US President Donald Trump for the US to purchase thousands of Ukrainian drones, many of them C-UAS intercept drones, in a deal worth USD10 billion or more. Ukrainian media sources report AI-powered C-UAS intercept drones developed by the USA’s Swift Beat are being transferred to Ukraine in increasing numbers; the company has also reached a deal with the Ukrainian government to jointly mass produce intercept and long-range drones. “Officials said the systems are responsible for downing roughly 90% of Russian Shaheds intercepted by drones,” according to media reports (see sources below). The US Department of Defense (DoD) has also decided to fund the purchase of AI-based Auterion targeting systems for Ukrainian drone interceptors.
On July 16 the Pentagon announced it would be substantially increasing the production of low-cost drones in the USA but without giving any details of an equivalent increase in low-cost counter-UAS systems which will be needed if the new realities of battlefield drone warfare are to be taken into account. With the recent DoD and industry tie-ups between Ukraine and the USA, this is now being addressed.
However, gaps remain. Arguably, the biggest gap in countering the evolving drone threat from Russia is not in mitigation technology but in surveillance and detection. “The Shahed represents a particular challenge for battlefield radar systems,” said a C-UAS expert recently returned from Ukraine. “Its low-observable profile makes it very to detect; the number of false positives generated is huge and the high costs or fielding radars which have high probability rates of Shahed detection are simply too great. Many of the US and European radar systems supplied to spot incoming drones are no long in use.”
Cost-effective, reliable detection is now becoming tougher as Russia increases the number of Shaheds equipped with AI navigation and targeting systems, reducing the external communications links which can be detected by RF detectors. And there is growing evidence that Russia’s ability to target and destroy Ukrainian logistic assets with small, cheap drones up to 25km behind the front lines is escalating as fibre-optic FPV drones, also able to avoid RF-detectors, proliferate.
In partial response to this growing threat, the new commander of Ukraine’s Drone Forces in June launched a “100-day plan” to transform the country’s offensive and defensive drone battlefield capabilities.
“Drawing on the experience of the 414th Brigade, the entire drone line will cover 12 mutually reinforcing layers of tactical and operational depth,” said a report in RBC Ukraine (see sources). “This includes electronic warfare (EW), electronic intelligence (ELINT), anti-drone systems, remote mining, mobile radar stations, drone interceptors – alongside simultaneous crew training and supply of all necessary components”.
At the core of this strategy is the development of a systematic counter-drone system across the front line rather than uncoordinated efforts by each unit – a strategy which is being carefully monitored by drone units in North American and European militaries as they seek to bring the lessons of the war in Ukraine to their own tactics and systems acquisition planning.
The problem they have is that in Ukraine the drone war evolves at a frightening rate – every six months a new widespread threat emerges which requires speedy and expensive mitigation. Defence departments in the West are simply not set up to deal with such a high threat turnover.
But what they are set up to do is work with SMEs, research agencies and current suppliers to develop fundamental new surveillance technologies which can be affordably matured and delivered to front-line units; the new US/Ukrainian partnership is not only a matter of military supply, according to media reports, but also a broader strategic partnership aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s defence-industrial base and deepening international cooperation. Effective drone surveillance is becoming the number one priority for both sides.
For more information
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-defense/4018767-zelensky-us-agrees-to-buy-ukrainian-drones.html
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/100-days-to-reform-commander-of-unmanned-1749081863.html
(Image: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering Emil Michael tour multidomain autonomous displays in the courtyard of the Pentagon, July 16, 2025, US Department of Defense)
