By Philip Butterworth-Hayes
The performance of Gulf states’ counter-UAS (C-UAS) systems in defending against Iranian Shahed drone attacks on Arabian Gulf states’ infrastructure, following US and Israel February 28 strikes, is being closely monitored by defence planners around the world.
According to United Arab Emirates (UAE) Ministry of Defence in a March 1 posting on X, “since the beginning of the Iranian attack on 28th February, 2026, 165 ballistic missiles launched from Iran towards the UAE have been detected. Of these, 152 were destroyed, while 13 fell into sea waters. Two cruise missiles were also detected and destroyed. A total of 541 Iranian drones were detected, of which 506 were intercepted and destroyed, while 35 fell within the country, causing material damage. The incidents resulted in three fatalities of Pakistani, Nepali and Bangladeshi nationalities, and 58 minor injuries among Emirati, Egyptian, Ethiopian, Filipino, Pakistani, Iranian, Indian, Bangladeshi, Sri Lankan, Azerbaijani, Yemeni, Ugandan, Eritrean, Lebanese and Afghan nationals.”
The UAE has developed a sophisticated counter-UAS (C-UAS) strategy to protect critical infrastructure including the Edge Group Skyshield C-UAS – a multi-layered system using 3D radars, electro-optical (EO) sensors and soft-kill (jamming) capabilities – complemented by more tactical systems such as the Calidus AI-based AlDeraa tracking and mitigation system and Raytheon Coyote interceptors.
The Edge Skyshield system (Edge)
The initial question for defence ministries around the globe is: is this an acceptable rate of success for a strategic C-UAS system developed to protect critical infrastructure rather than military assets? And the second should be – how do we scale this system to defeat more complex drone threats which are just around the corner?
Measuring damage from these kinds of attacks is notoriously difficult. Alongside the casualties and the cost there is the psychological impact of seeing images of burning hotels splashed across social media and the closure of airports and airspace for indefinite periods. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates were all targeted by Iran, along with US military bases.
All the early indications suggest that Iran’s drone attacks were largely based on the Shahed-136 drone/cruise missile and the Shahed-136B, an upgraded version of the original model, with a more powerful engine, a range of over 2,000 miles and a larger explosive warhead than the ubiquitous 136. A long-range Iranian Shahed reportedly struck a radar system at the US Naval Support Activity Bahrain – most likely to be the Shahed-136B.
Iran’s January 2025 Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Russia will give it access to Russia’s Shahed-derived Geran-3 and Geran-5 cruise missiles, if Russia has any to spare. These are far more formidable than Iran’s current stock of Shaheds. Flying at speeds of 600 km/h, at altitudes up to 9 km and with a 90kg warhead (in the Geran 5 version), with jam resistant 12-element adaptive antenna arrays, Gerans are effectively low-cost cruise missiles with the potential to bypass many of the counter-UAS systems deployed by states to protect critical infrastructure.
But supplying these systems to Iran will not be a simple choice for Russia: it will degrade already depleted stocks and will raise the anger levels against it in the USA and throughout the Middle East if Geran-3s and -5s suddenly start appearing in the sky. At the same time, Russia cannot afford to lose a valuable ally.
The next few months will see many countries in the region seek urgent upgrades to their air defence and C-UAS strategic systems and one of the key beneficiaries to these requirements will be Ukraine, who knows better than anyone else how to cost-effectively defend again swarms of drones, cruise and other missiles. If Ukraine can forge the same kind of drone/C-UAS industrial links with Gulf state countries as it has done with Europe – setting up production lines a long way away from Ukraine – that would provide both sides with quick wins.
For the first time, drone and C-UAS technology forged in the heat of the battlefields in Ukraine could soon be exported to the wider world at scale, depending on how long the current hostilities last.
(Image: Shutterstock)